【内容提要】
2010年第二期英文目录
An Analysis on the Applicability of TFP in New Emerging Developing Countries:A Test based on the Model
Chen Changjiang Gao Bo(3)
In this paper, we reviewed the arguments related to the Total Factor Productivity(TFP). We argued that it is misguided to apply TFP as the indicator of the quality of economic growth of new emerging developing countries because of imbalanced growth. We modeled the import of equipment and the technology diffusion process in NIEs, and calculated the TFP in the two process. The conclusion was that in the conditions of nonequilibrium, the TFP index may have underestimated the technological advances in the emerging developing countries, the economic growth strategy based on the investment may be an unavoidable stage in developing countries.
An Analysis on the Relation between the Energy Consumption Intensity and the Economic Growth in Developing Countries
Qi Shaozhou Li Kai(8)
We suppose that the difference of energy consumption intensity between developing countries and developed countries is the function of the difference of per capita GDP between the two sides. Then we test the relationship between two dummy variables of country and time we added, and estimate the coefficients by panel data of 10 developing countries and 10 developed countries from 1991 to 2005. Our findings are as follows: firstly, the difference of per capita GDP tends to convergence between the developing countries and the developed countries. With the convergence of per capita GDP the difference of energy consumption intensity between the two sides also tends to convergence and its speed is faster than that of per capita GDP. Secondly, in the process of narrowing the economic disparities with the developed countries, energy efficiency of 10 developing countries has been improved, but still lag behind that of developed countries. So the developing countries should increase their energy efficiency further.
Impacts of International Financial Crisis on Competition of Global Banking Industry
Li Shikai(14)
The international financial crisis has had a great impact on the US and Eropean banks, but their capital power and asset size have not been significantly affected. Studies show that the US and European banks remain their competitive advantages, the international financial crisis has not fundamentally changed the competition pattern of global banking industry led by the US and European banks.
Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectation and Monetary Policy Rules
Yin Xingmin(21)
China and the United States′ monetary authorities have taken an easing monetary policy in the face of global recession since October 2008. The results suggest that the growth rates of M1 and M2 were 20.6% and 21.4% in China, while 3.36% and 2.14% in the U.S. respectively between December 2008 and August 2009. In contrast with the trend of money supply in the U.S., China′s monetary policy should be defined into the supereasing one, which has brought about the overall inflation expectation over the previous months. Clearly, oversupply of money contains the high risk of price rising in the coming years. Drawing on current money supply difference, the paper discusses the implications of the findings for the explanations of monetary policy rules both quantitative rules and discretionary policy in the long term macroeconomic stability.
The Dilemmas of Immature Creditor and RMB Internationalization
Shi Qiaorong(27)
According to the theory of balance of payment evolvement, China has become an emerging creditor since 2002, but it′s an immature creditor owing to that RMB can′t be used for international lending. There are some dilemmas in China′s economy such as the depreciation of the national wealthy with the form of foreign assets, the difficulty of monetary sterilization and economic structural imbalance. The only way to shake off the dilemmas is to expedite RMB internationalization with the key work to promote RMB settlement of crossborder trade and offshore financial market synergistically.
Evaluation on Mutual Effect of Interest Rate and Exchange Rate between China and U.S.: An Empirical Study on the Basis of Covered Interestrate Parity Theory
Liu Wei Wu Hong(32)
After making empirical study on the mutual effect mechanism between interest rate and exchange rate, we could find some results as following. Firstly, China′s interest rate policy has little effect on SinoU.S. exchange rate and interest rate policy of the U.S.A., although China′s interest rate is Granger cause of SinoU.S. exchange rate and interest rate of the U.S.A.. Secondly, interest rate policy of the U.S.A. has more effect on SinoU.S. exchange rate and China′s interest rate. So we believe that China should continue to establish marketoriented interest rate mechanism and develop international communication mechanism among China′s financial markets.
The Real Exchange Rate of RMB and Employment of China:A Study based on the Endogenous Labor Supply Models
Wang Xiaocheng(37)
In this article, we establish an optimizing intertemporal agent model with endogenous labor supply incorporated and set up a theory model and the metrological model object to the employment of China. Then using Johansen cointegrating technique, Granger causality test and VEC model to find the relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB and employment of China from 1985 to 2007. Empirical test shows that in the long term depreciation of the real exchange rate of RMB will impel the employment of China, while appreciation of the real exchange of RMB will curb rising employment. The actual interest rate of international market is related to China′s employment positively and significantly. In the short term, the response of employment to fluctuation of RMB is delayed, the relationship between employment and the actual interest rate of international market is opposite to the long term. According to the above analysis, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
Horizontal and Vertical Effects of Export Trade on Technological Innovation: An Empirical Analysis based on Dynamic Panel Model
Li Ping Tian Shuo(44)
International trade is not only the exchange of goods and service among countries, but also in favor of technological innovation and diffusion. At present, empirical researches on the relationship between import trade and technological innovation are more mature while less attention has been paid on the relationship between export trade and technological innovation. In this article, we construct input-output function of R&D and test the effects of export spillovers on industrial technological innovation by using China′s manufacturing panel data from 2001 to 2007. The result shows that horizontal spillovers of export has positive effects on technological innovation, and effects of backwardlinkage spillovers are less significant. However, considering the impacts of industrial competition, the technological spillovers of export are significantly positive.
An Empirical Research on ImportExport Trade Structure and International Competitiveness of Productive Service Trade in China
Yu Daoxian Liu Haiyun(49)
This paper empirically analyzed the importexport trade structure of China′s international productive service trade in the past 12 years since 1997, and calculated the trade competitiveness index and Michaely competitive advantage index separately. The results showed that importexport trade structure in China′s productive service trade was irrational, the modern productive service industries developed slowly, the trade competitiveness was weaker and the development of productive sectors was imbalanced. Based on these analyses, some relevant policy recommendations were put forward and some beneficial enlightenment was obtained.
An Initial Approach on Swift Control Mechanism for Antidumping
Yu Fei(56)
Antidumping is one of the few permitted trade remedies to protect domestic industry by offsetting unfair trade. However, as a matter of fact antidumping is not functioned as a good “adjustor” to international trade or “safe valve” for domestic industry, instead it turns out to be a toxic asset to world trade mechanism. In order to reduce its adverse effect, many targeted countries brought some most frequent users such as the U.S. and EU into the WTO Dispute Settlement System (DSU), challenging their antidumping laws, regulations as well as practices. However, the DSU is weak for extraordinary prolonged timeframe, inefficiency and without apparent binding effect. Thus, it is critically necessary to establish a Swift Control Mechanism for Antidumping, incorporating certain key elements such as setting up a permanent panel for antidumping, expanding its jurisdiction, straightlining timeframe for such disputes and strengthening implementation thereof, so as to curb abusive usage of antidumping actions and promote free trade.
The Different Impact of the Intraproduct Trade and Traditional Trade Pattern on the Economic Growth of the Developing Country: On the Basis of China′s Empirical Analysis
Li Ruiqin(62)
Intraproduct trade and traditional trade pattern will exert different effects on the economic growth of a country. This article analyzes this problem in the theoretical and the empirical aspect. On the part of the theory, we mainly expatiate on the different impacts of those two trade patterns on the longterm economic growth from five aspects. We reach the conclusion that the intraproduct trade pattern will push the economic growth of a country more. On the part of the empirical analysis, we set China as an example, and select the processing trade and the general trade as the representatives of the intraproduct trade and traditional trade pattern. According to the analysis, we consider that China should try to consummate and improve the scales and levels of the intraproduct trade, in order to promote the long and healthy economic growth of our country.
Impact of Different Types of Outward Foreign Investment on Economic and Financial Risks
Li Wei(68)
We investigate the impact of different types of outward foreign investment on financial and economic risks in emerging market economies. The results of empirical analysis strongly support the theoretical model inferences. The outflowing of foreign direct investment and indirect investment abroad will lead to the increase of the domestic financial instability significantly. The direct investment abroad will lead to the instability in the domestic real economy and the financial development will play a role in marginal effect of overseas investment. The theoretical model further suggests that numerical regulation of investment, whether from home or the target countries, can not eliminate or reduce the financial and real economy risks. Such proposal can also enhance the degree of instability and increase the possibility of a macrocrisis.
The Research on Transnational Retailer′s Entry Mode into the Overseas Market
Lan Chuanhai Zhou Jiang Li Jun(74)
As an important part of business strategies, the entry mode into the overseas market of the transnational retailer may affect their own future survival and performance. In this article, policy factors and strategical factors ignored in the former research are particularly taken into account, and the relationships between the internal characteristics and the entry mode as well as various internal and external factors of the transnational retailer are established, thus the paper sets up the mathematical model systematically, which can describe the entry mode. The results conform to the actual conditions and consist with my former qualitative research findings. The empirical test shows the accuracy and reliability of the model. With the establishment of the model, we can come up with new ideas and methods to make quantitative research on the entry mode into the overseas market of the transnational retailer.
Empirical Investigation on Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Pollution: A Simultaneous Equations Approach
Huang Jing(80)
This paper attempts to thoroughly analyze and measure different influence channels of FDI on environmental pollution in China. A simultaneous equations model has been developed to character different interrelationships among different variables including the interactions among FDI, economic growth and environmental regulation. And an empirical test is made by using industrial pollution data set of 217 Chinese cities in 2003~2006. The results indicate that the total effects of FDI on environmental pollution through economic growth, industrial structure and pollution abatement are positive. Therefore, we should introduce foreign advanced technology and environmental standards, and absorb foreign advanced production technology and green manufacturing processes in order to improve the efficiency of resource utilization, so as to achieve sustainable development of China′s economy.
